General skillResearch and knowledge

augur

Builds testable, scenario-based forecasts with a Brier-scored ledger.

Stars
1
Forks
0
License
MIT
Updated
Updated Jul 1, 2026

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Project overview

Augur turns a geopolitical, institutional, or social question into a resolution contract, gathers tagged material across several analytical lanes, maps incentives and structural pressure, and keeps only analogies whose mechanisms transfer. It produces a three-to-five-path scenario tree with probability bands, early indicators, and disconfirmers, then stores forecasts for Brier scoring after resolution. Forecasts are inherently uncertain and are intended for analysis and education, not investment, legal, financial, or security decisions.

Repository facts

Primary language
Python
License
MIT
Repository updated
Jul 1, 2026
Default branch
main

Resource types

General skill

Use cases

Research and knowledge

Platforms

Claude Code, Codex, and more

Capabilities

Verification and evals

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