General skillResearch and knowledge
augur
Builds testable, scenario-based forecasts with a Brier-scored ledger.
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- Updated Jul 1, 2026
MIT
Builds testable, scenario-based forecasts with a Brier-scored ledger.
Augur turns a geopolitical, institutional, or social question into a resolution contract, gathers tagged material across several analytical lanes, maps incentives and structural pressure, and keeps only analogies whose mechanisms transfer. It produces a three-to-five-path scenario tree with probability bands, early indicators, and disconfirmers, then stores forecasts for Brier scoring after resolution. Forecasts are inherently uncertain and are intended for analysis and education, not investment, legal, financial, or security decisions.
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